🌍 National Resilience Dashboard

Methodology & Data Sources

1. Data Collection & Sources

The resilience scores are derived from multiple authoritative international data sources:

• World Bank Open Data: GDP, Debt, Trade, Infrastructure indicators
• International Monetary Fund (IMF): Financial stability metrics
• United Nations Development Programme (UNDP): Human Development Index components
• World Health Organization (WHO): Health system indicators
• Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI): Institutional quality measures
• World Economic Forum: Competitiveness and infrastructure data

2. Resilience Framework

National resilience is measured through four interconnected pillars, each contributing 25% to the overall score:

💰 Financial Resilience (25%)

• Fiscal sustainability and debt management
• Foreign exchange reserves
• Banking sector stability
• Economic diversification

👥 Social Resilience (25%)

• Education access and quality
• Healthcare system capacity
• Income equality (Gini coefficient)
• Social safety nets

🏛️ Institutional Resilience (25%)

• Government effectiveness
• Rule of law and regulatory quality
• Control of corruption
• Political stability

🏗️ Infrastructure Resilience (25%)

• Physical infrastructure quality
• Digital connectivity
• Energy security
• Transportation networks

3. Score Calculation

Each indicator is normalized to a 0-1 scale using min-max normalization:

Score = (Value - Min) / (Max - Min)

Pillar scores are calculated as the average of their component indicators. The overall resilience score is the arithmetic mean of all four pillars.

4. Forecasting Methodology (2025-2030)

Future projections employ two sophisticated statistical models:

• Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS): Captures trend, seasonality, and structural changes
• Dynamic Factor Model (DFM): Accounts for common factors and cross-country correlations

Forecasts incorporate:

• Historical trends (2019-2024)
• Cyclical patterns
• Structural breaks (e.g., COVID-19 impact)
• Regional spillovers

5. Classification Thresholds

Score Range	Classification	Interpretation
0.66 - 1.00	● Excellent	Highly resilient, strong capacity to absorb shocks
0.60 - 0.66	● Good	Above-average resilience, capable of managing disruptions
0.53 - 0.60	● Moderate	Moderate resilience, vulnerable to significant shocks
0.45 - 0.53	● Low	Below-average resilience, requires immediate attention
0.00 - 0.45	● Critical	Very low resilience, highly vulnerable to crises

6. Limitations & Considerations

• Data availability varies by country and indicator
• Forecasts are subject to uncertainty and unforeseen events
• Scores reflect relative positioning, not absolute capacity
• Equal weighting of pillars may not reflect country-specific priorities

7. Citation

When using this dashboard, please cite as:

National Resilience Dashboard (2026). Comprehensive Analysis of Global Resilience 2019-2030. Based on World Bank, IMF, UNDP, WHO, and WGI data.